Black Swan — Roadmap¶

Purpose: Single source of truth about project progress. Shows which components are already implemented, which are in active development, and how the project moves from a laboratory prototype (TRL‑4) towards a fully autonomous, self‑improving system (TRL‑7+).

🔭 Vision¶

Create a distributed AI swarm capable of autonomously surviving, self‑healing, earning resources, and continuously improving its own code without violating fundamental safety axioms (L3.0).

📍 Current Status (May 2026)¶

Overall readiness level: TRL‑4+ Components and subsystems validated in a laboratory environment; key components upgraded to industrial-grade.

✅ Formal verification (TLA+): 8 protocols (Ouroboros, SurvivalObjective, GeneticEngine, CuriosityEngine, AdaptiveMotivation, etc.).
✅ Economic simulator: multi‑agent sweep, stability zone discovered.
✅ Laboratory swarm: Docker Compose with 4 nodes, fully decentralized (no Redis). ✅ Multinode DeepSeek Swarm (v2.13) – 4–5 nodes running DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, model shared via read‑only volume, resource limits for 8 GB RAM PCs. ✅ Industrial CRDT layer – operation‑based CRDT with SQLite persistence, version vectors, and deterministic LWW merge.
✅ Secure Gossip protocol – HMAC‑signed envelopes, replay protection, peer backoff and scoring.
✅ Speciated Genetic Engine – genome dataclass, species formation, adaptive mutation, fitness cache.
✅ Genetic Ouroboros prototype: distributed evolution with Champion/Challenger.
✅ Survival Objective integrated into every node (conscious risk avoidance).
✅ Adaptive Intrinsic Motivation: Meta‑POMDP agent switches between scenarios.
✅ Curiosity Engine: proactive exploration of market anomalies.
✅ CI/CD: unit tests, formal verification (local + GitHub Actions). ✅ Multi-model benchmark completed – 10 models evaluated, top performer: SmolLM2-1.7B-Instruct (fitness 0.898). ✅ Spore protocol stress‑test completed (4 nodes, high failure rate, automatic recovery). ✅ Signed GossipEnvelope implemented – genome exchange cryptographically signed. ✅ Signed genome exchange with Ed25519 verified and tested in live swarm. 🔑 Key Manager now centralizes all private keys; keys are never exposed in logs. 📜 Intelligence Contract v1.0 defines strict boundaries between Infrastructure and Intelligence layers. 📊 Gold Filter pipeline extracts successful trading episodes into JSONL datasets for future LoRA training.

📖 Detailed report: docs/TRL4_VALIDATION_REPORT.md

🧩 Component Map and Readiness¶

Subsystem	Status	TRL	Key artifacts
Formal models	✅ Core verified	4	`formal/tla/*.tla`
Economic contour	✅ Laboratory swarm	4	`sim/multi_agent_sim.py`, `mvp/lab_swarm_demo/`
Ouroboros (self‑improvement)	✅ Distributed prototype	4	`sim/evolve_kelly.py`, `formal/tla/Ouroboros.tla`, `mvp/lab_swarm_demo/`
Survival Objective	✅ Integrated into swarm	4	`sim/survival_evaluator.py`, `formal/tla/SurvivalObjective.tla`
Genetic Engine	✅ Speciated with species/novelty	4	`sim/genetic_engine.py`, `formal/tla/GeneticEngine.tla`
Adaptive Intrinsic Motivation	✅ Integrated (Meta‑POMDP)	4	`sim/meta_pomdp_agent.py`, `formal/tla/AdaptiveMotivation.tla`
Curiosity Engine	✅ Distributed hypothesis generation	4	`sim/curiosity_engine.py`, `formal/tla/CuriosityEngine.tla`
CRDT State (Industrial)	✅ Op‑based CRDT + SQLite persistence	4	`src/core/crdt_layer.py`, `src/core/crdt_adapter.py`
Gossip Layer (Secure)	✅ HMAC, replay protection, backoff	4	`src/core/gossip_layer.py`, `src/core/gossip_adapter.py`
D2BFT consensus	🧪 Prototype (majority voting)	3	`src/core/d2bft.py`, `formal/tla/D2BFT.tla`
Memory (Mem0g)	📐 Designed	2	`docs/architecture/memory_hierarchy_mem0g.md`
Security & stealth	📐 Designed	2	`docs/domains/cybersecurity_stealth/`
Meat‑Interface (humans)	📐 Concept	2	`docs/domains/physical_human_interface/`
Singularity / Spore / Omega	📐 Hypothetical models	2	`docs/singularity/`
Hardware isolation	📐 Specification	2	`docs/deployment/hardware_isolation.md`

🚀 Immediate Next Steps¶

Build metrics dashboard – visualise capital, fitness, diversity, and gossip health (Prometheus + Grafana).
Harden gossip security – add Ed25519 signatures, peer reputation, and optional TLS.
Evaluate Kubernetes deployment – prepare Helm chart for production‑grade swarm.
Activate GOSSIP_SIGNING_ENABLED=true and verify signed genome exchange without failures.
Begin design of LocalMemoryAPI (working/episodic/semantic/policy layers).
Prepare adapter for Binance Testnet (CCXT integration).
Begin Web3 testnet integration (Arbitrum Sepolia) via Web3TestnetAdapter stub.
Validate gold‑filter output with real profitable episodes; prepare first fine‑tuning dataset.